Iran, Iran, Iran ? What to do about a nuclear Iran ? There seem to be two schools of thought:
Let’s face it, the US has fewer and fewer options when it comes to Iran.
What we’ve learned from Iraq is what question to ask. It’s not: ‘will you bomb Iran ?’ It’s ‘what will you do after you’ve bombed Iran ?’
America had no plan for Baghdad + 1.
Do they really have a plan for Tehran + 1 ?
When the Stealth bombers return to base after flattening Natanz what will the Americans do ?
You can bet the Iranians have planned for an American raid and have spread their nuclear technology far and wide, creating dummy facilities, deep bomb-proof bunkers and hiding key equipment.
They know Israel and America might try a pre-emptive strike, as the Israelis did against Iraq in 1981.
Bombing isn’t a silver bullet. Far from it. They may obliterate some key sites, but they won’t stop Iran’s nuclear programme dead. You can be sure a raid will accelerate, not to mention justify, Iranian determination to go nuclear. Bombing will only buy time.
Sitting in Tehran, America looks a real threat. The US occupies Iraq – on Iran’s western border – and Afghanistan – on Iran’s eastern border. America also has a history of anti-Iranian aggression, ranging from the Iranian hostage crisis to the Iran-Iraq war, when America actively backed Iraq against Iran.
The Iranian leadership knows there is one deterent to perceived US aggression: nuclear weapons.
The US won’t mess with a nuclear armed state. North Korea proves that.
Bombing won’t work and, other than blowing up a few Iranian nuclear installations, could detonate a region wide conflagration that makes Iraq look like a walk in the park.
So, let’s think for a moment what Iran could do if America or Israel launched an attack:
- close the Straights of Hormuz. Between 15 and 16.5 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz each day, roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil production.
- flood Iraq with high tech weaponry and put a $10,000+ bounty on every dead American
- launch long range missle attacks on Isreal and American targets in the Middle East
- massively increase its support and funding for anti-Israel Islamic groups like Hizbollah and Islamic Jihad
- sponsor, arm and encourage al-Quaeda to repeatedly attack America, at home and abroad.
- encourage and arm radical, anti-American Islam across the Middle East focussing on US allies like Saudi Arabia and Egypt
Basically, Iran has a range of responses to an American or Israeli attack. After the bombing raids, America has even fewer choices.
The US won’t, indeed can’t, invade Iran and is powerless to effect regime change. When the Stealth bombers return, what’s left for America to do other than brace herself for the inevitable retaliation and fall back on… diplomacy.
After all, the road to a stable and peaceful Middle East runs through Jerusalem not Natanz.
So yeah... 