Kerry vs Bush

On the eve of the Democratic Party Convention in Boston and with only 99 days to go, the polls put Bush and Kerry on a 47-47 point knife-edge. The electorate and the country are split right down the middle.

The majority have already made up their mind. Both parties will now target all their efforts, strategies and cash at a small slice of undecided voters in those crucial swing states.

In this precarious condition, the election is extremely vulnerable to what Macmillian condescendingly described as, “events, dear boy, events”. Commentators are openly speculating on the impact of an al-Qaeda attack on the election. Could it force a decisive swing in Bush’s favour ? As the terrible Madrid bombings suggest, a well timed attack can change everything.

This must be the worst nightmare for Democratic strtategists and party managers. A terrorist attack on America would wipe them off the map and plunge America into deep, deep crisis…

The amazing thing here is that every vote really counts. Some people in those swing states have the power to decide who gets the White House. They probably know who they are. You can bet the two parties do…

I wonder what the Democrats and Republicans are actually doing to try and cajole and convince those swing voters one way or another. Is anyone engaged in a spot of gerrymandering I wonder ? That’s an investigation waiting to happen. Remember the hanging chad fiasco of the last election with laywers inspecting voting slips with tweezers in an attempt to discern whether the paper had actually been punctured or not… That was just embarrasing !

It’s interesting to speculate on how America would respond to a hung vote. What would happen if it was a 50-50 split and there was no outright winner ? They sure got close in the last election.

What mechanisms does the US constitutional system have to ejudicate a hung election ? How would the Americans decide if the result was a dead heat ? Sure we’d get recounts, local disputes and lawyers a plenty. Party elders and statesmen would pontificate and offer advice.

But how would they actually decide who gets the ultimate prize without driving a terrible wedge through the heart of America ? Could ‘one Nation under God, indivisible…‘, become a country split by its own politics… we have 99+ days to find out.

My Life – Bill Clinton

I’ve been reading extracts from Bill Clinton’s new memoir, My Life.

I’ve always liked Clinton and remember the great sense of change in 1992 when he won the Presidency. He’s an interesting man with obvious talents and flaws.

I’ve never met him but I remember seeing his presidential helicopter buzzing over Birmingham at the ’98 G7 summit.

What struck me about the book is just how much of an instinctive politician he is. From his very early days, he was dining with senators and campaigning. Politics is in his blood.

Clinton is famously titled, the great communicator. Apparently, no one could work a room with the skill or style of Clinton.

His book adopts a folksy, conversational style, but doesn’t really contain any new revelations. Worth a read though.